Moneyline
NYJ MLodds down −137
Won 62%
The Jets win the game.
Confidence62%
Model55.9%
SportsbooksOdds55.1%
Edge+0.8
Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 11, 4:19 PM ET
Browns vs Jets picks
3 picks · Jets by 3 · 37 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
NYJ +4.5odds down −286
Won 85%
The Jets win, or lose by four points or fewer.
Confidence85%
Model71.1%
SportsbooksOdds68.9%
Edge+2.2
TotalBest pick
Over 34odds up −208
Lost 85%
The two teams score 35 or more points between them (exactly 34 is a push).
Confidence85%
Model72.5%
SportsbooksOdds69.9%
Edge+2.6
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Browns0737717
Jets730101020
Most likely final scoresCLE 17–20 NYJ 0.8%CLE 24–27 NYJ 0.7%CLE 20–23 NYJ 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
BrownsJets
Offense
309▼ 198
Total yards
▼ 276309
195▼ 102
Passing yards
▼ 142200
114▼ 96
Rushing yards
▲ 134109
19▼ 13
First downs
▼ 1419
Scoring
2▼ 1
Touchdowns
= 22
1= 1
Passing touchdowns
= 11
1▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
= 11
1▲ 2
Field goals made
▼ 12
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
▲ 21
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
0▲ 2
Fumbles lost
▲ 20
2▲ 8
Sacks allowed
▲ 43
52▼ 30
Penalty yards
▲ 10252
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 263.5
Proj. 309
72%
Lost · 197
Passing yards
Over 153.5
Proj. 195
72%
Lost · 101
Rushing yards
Over 86.5
Proj. 115
72%
Won · 96
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 19
71%
Lost · 13
Total yards
Over 262.5
Proj. 309
72%
Won · 276
Passing yards
Over 158.5
Proj. 200
72%
Lost · 142
Rushing yards
Over 80.5
Proj. 109
72%
Won · 134
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 19
69%
Lost · 14
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Browns
QB
Deshaun Watson20/30 · 195 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.6 INT
195pass yds
RB
Quinshon Judkins16 carries · 54 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 4 rec
54rush yds
WR/TE
Harold Fannin Jr.4 rec · 38 yds · 0.5 TD
38rec yds
WR/TE
Kevin Concepcion4 rec · 35 yds · 0.0 TD
35rec yds
Jets
QB
Geno Smith20/32 · 200 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.0 INT
200pass yds
RB
Breece Hall16 carries · 64 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 3 rec
64rush yds
WR/TE
Garrett Wilson6 rec · 67 yds · 0.4 TD
67rec yds
WR/TE
Isaiah Williams2 rec · 33 yds · 0.2 TD
33rec yds
Road form. The Browns are 1-1 on the road this season, losing by 10.0 points a game.
Home form. The Jets are 0-1 at home, scoring 17.0 points a game there.
Total move. The total opened at 40 and is now 38.5.
Rest. The Browns come in on 10 days’ rest, the Jets on 7.
Streak. The Browns have won 3 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Cleveland BrownsNew York Jets
Cleveland BrownsNew York Jets
3-1Record1-3
1-1 roadRoad / home0-1 home
W3StreakL3
10 daysRest7 days
20.3Points per game19.0
23.8Points allowed21.0
−14
Point differentialseason to date
−8
5.1Yards per play5.0
199Passing yards / game202
94Rushing yards / game84
33%3rd-down conversion32%
50%Red-zone touchdowns55%
4Takeaways4
12Sacks9
5Turnovers1
5.2Yards per play4.0
204Passing yards / game218
66Rushing yards / game67
29%3rd-down conversion42%
20%Red-zone touchdowns67%
1Takeaways1
4Sacks3
2Turnovers0
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Browns’ road games with the Jets’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Browns
3-1
WLWWW
Wk 4Oct 1vs PIT
Steelers24Browns27
Steelers moneyline −154Browns moneyline +125
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs CAR
Panthers18Browns21
Panthers moneyline −135Browns moneyline +103
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20@ TB
Browns23Buccaneers19
Browns moneyline +320Buccaneers moneyline −435
WFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13@ JAX
Browns10Jaguars34
Browns moneyline +330Jaguars moneyline −455
LFINAL
Wk 18Jan 4, 2026@ CIN
Browns20Bengals18
Browns moneyline +335Bengals moneyline −476
WFINAL
Jets
1-3
LWLLL
Wk 4Oct 4@ CHI
Jets12Bears23
Jets moneyline +155Bears moneyline −192
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ DET
Jets24Lions31
Jets moneyline +240Lions moneyline −323
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs GB
Packers20Jets17
Packers moneyline −182Jets moneyline +147
LF/OT
Wk 1Sep 13@ TEN
Jets23Titans10
Jets moneyline −102Titans moneyline −119
WFINAL
Wk 18Jan 4, 2026@ BUF
Jets8Bills35
Jets moneyline +470Bills moneyline −833
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameAFC North
Head-to-head
Last three meetings · regular season and playoffs
BROWNS
1
Wins
Avg. points29.0 – 26.0
Avg. total55.0 pts
Over closing total3 of 3
2
JETS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 10MetLife Stadium
Browns20Jets27
Browns moneyline −137Jets moneyline +108
2023 · Wk 17Cleveland Browns Stadium
Jets20Browns37
Jets moneyline +275Browns moneyline −345
2022 · Wk 2FirstEnergy Stadium
Jets31Browns30
Jets moneyline +220Browns moneyline −270
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (CLE)+117up +121
Moneyline (NYJ)−143down −149
Spread (NYJ)−2.5−2.5
Total40down 38.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The New York Jets beat the Cleveland Browns 17–12 in NFL Week 5 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford. The moneyline had the Browns at +121 and the Jets at −149.
Our model predicted a final score of Browns 17, Jets 20. Its picks: the Jets to win (−137), won; the Jets +4.5 (−286), won; over 34 points (−208), lost. The best pick was over 34 points, at 85% confidence.