Moneyline
DEN MLodds down −192
Won 51%
The Broncos win the game.
Confidence51%
Model50.3%
SportsbooksOdds63.2%
Edge−12.9
Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 11, 7:34 PM ET
Broncos vs Chargers picks
3 picks · Broncos by 3 · 37 points · 3 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
LAC +9.5−263
Won 85%
The Chargers win, or lose by nine points or fewer.
Confidence85%
Model79.0%
SportsbooksOdds69.6%
Edge+9.4
Total
Under 48.5odds down −263
Won 84%
The two teams score 48 or fewer points between them.
Confidence84%
Model67.3%
SportsbooksOdds69.0%
Edge−1.7
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Broncos314031720
Chargers010071017
Most likely final scoresDEN 20–17 LAC 0.8%DEN 23–20 LAC 0.6%DEN 13–10 LAC 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
BroncosChargers
Offense
306▼ 224
Total yards
▼ 237331
202▼ 118
Passing yards
▼ 82203
104▲ 106
Rushing yards
▲ 155128
18= 18
First downs
▼ 1420
Scoring
2= 2
Touchdowns
= 22
1= 1
Passing touchdowns
= 11
1= 1
Rushing touchdowns
= 11
2▲ 3
Field goals made
= 11
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
▲ 31
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
= 11
0▲ 1
Fumbles lost
▲ 20
2▼ 1
Sacks allowed
▲ 53
53▼ 40
Penalty yards
▲ 9351
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 259.5
Proj. 306
72%
Lost · 224
Passing yards
Over 160.5
Proj. 202
72%
Lost · 118
Rushing yards
Over 75.5
Proj. 104
72%
Won · 106
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 18
70%
Won · 18
Total yards
Over 284.5
Proj. 331
72%
Lost · 237
Passing yards
Over 161.5
Proj. 203
72%
Lost · 82
Rushing yards
Over 99.5
Proj. 128
72%
Won · 155
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
75%
Lost · 14
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Broncos
QB
Bo Nix19/32 · 202 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT
202pass yds
RB
J.K. Dobbins14 carries · 51 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 1 rec
51rush yds
WR/TE
RJ Harvey7 rec · 52 yds · 0.0 TD
52rec yds
WR/TE
Jaylen Waddle4 rec · 47 yds · 0.2 TD
47rec yds
Chargers
QB
Justin Herbert20/33 · 203 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT
203pass yds
RB
Omarion Hampton15 carries · 63 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 1 rec
63rush yds
WR/TE
Tre Harris4 rec · 57 yds · 0.0 TD
57rec yds
WR/TE
Keaton Mitchell3 rec · 12 yds · 0.3 TD
12rec yds
Road form. The Broncos are 0-2 on the road this season, losing by 15.5 points a game.
Home form. The Chargers are 0-2 at home, scoring 14.0 points a game there.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Division game. Two AFC West rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Streak. The Chargers have lost 4 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Denver BroncosLos Angeles Chargers
Denver BroncosLos Angeles Chargers
2-2Record0-4
0-2 roadRoad / home0-2 home
L1StreakL4
7 daysRest7 days
18.5Points per game16.8
23.5Points allowed26.5
−20
Point differentialseason to date
−39
4.9Yards per play5.0
199Passing yards / game185
81Rushing yards / game122
40%3rd-down conversion35%
64%Red-zone touchdowns58%
4Takeaways7
8Sacks10
5Turnovers10
4.3Yards per play5.1
165Passing yards / game185
72Rushing yards / game104
34%3rd-down conversion32%
67%Red-zone touchdowns80%
1Takeaways1
2Sacks3
3Turnovers5
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Broncos’ road games with the Chargers’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Broncos
2-2
LLWWL
Wk 4Oct 4@ SF
Broncos1449ers24
Broncos moneyline +13049ers moneyline −175
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs LAR
Rams26Broncos30
Rams moneyline −118Broncos moneyline −106
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs JAX
Jaguars13Broncos20
Jaguars moneyline +125Broncos moneyline −152
WFINAL
Wk 1Sep 14@ KC
Broncos10Chiefs31
Broncos moneyline +106Chiefs moneyline −128
LFINAL
Conf. Champ.Jan 25, 2026vs NE
Patriots10Broncos7
Patriots moneyline −217Broncos moneyline +172
LFINAL
Chargers
0-4
LLLLL
Wk 4Oct 4@ SEA
Chargers23Seahawks30
Chargers moneyline +265Seahawks moneyline −357
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ BUF
Chargers16Bills24
Chargers moneyline +270Bills moneyline −345
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs LV
Raiders26Chargers14
Raiders moneyline +245Chargers moneyline −313
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13vs ARI
Cardinals26Chargers14
Cardinals moneyline +360Chargers moneyline −500
LFINAL
Wild CardJan 11, 2026@ NE
Chargers3Patriots16
Chargers moneyline +160Patriots moneyline −200
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameHead-to-head
Last five meetings · regular season and playoffs
BRONCOS
2
Wins
Avg. points19.6 – 18.4
Avg. total38.0 pts
Over closing total2 of 5
3
CHARGERS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 18Empower Field at Mile High
Chargers3Broncos19
Chargers moneyline +650Broncos moneyline −1429
2025 · Wk 3SoFi Stadium
Broncos20Chargers23
Broncos moneyline +119Chargers moneyline −152
2024 · Wk 16SoFi Stadium
Broncos27Chargers34
Broncos moneyline +120Chargers moneyline −154
2024 · Wk 6Empower Field at Mile High
Chargers23Broncos16
Chargers moneyline −159Broncos moneyline +125
2023 · Wk 17Empower Field at Mile High
Chargers9Broncos16
Chargers moneyline +160Broncos moneyline −192
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (DEN)−189−189
Moneyline (LAC)+151+151
Spread (LAC)+3.5+3.5
Total42up 42.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Denver Broncos beat the Los Angeles Chargers 23–17 in NFL Week 5 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, October 11 at 4:05 PM ET, at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood. The moneyline had the Broncos at −189 and the Chargers at +151.
Our model predicted a final score of Broncos 20, Chargers 17. Its picks: the Broncos to win (−192), won; the Chargers +9.5 (−263), won; under 48.5 points (−263), won. The best pick was the Chargers +9.5, at 85% confidence.