Boston College vs Duke Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
BC	2	0	0	0	2
DUKE	13	14	14	6	47

Boston College vs Duke picks

3 picks · Duke by 7 · 49 points · 3 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

DUKE MLodds up −278 Won 93%

Duke wins the game.

Confidence93%

Model77.0% SportsbooksOdds74.8% Edge+2.2

Spread

DUKE +1.5odds up −294 Won 85%

Duke wins, or loses by one point or fewer.

Confidence85%

Model78.7% SportsbooksOdds73.3% Edge+5.4

Total

Over 41.5odds down −256 Won 74%

The two teams score 42 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model69.5% SportsbooksOdds67.2% Edge+2.3

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Boston College70014721

Duke3100151328

Most likely final scoresBC 21–28 DUKE 0.6%BC 14–28 DUKE 0.6%BC 10–38 DUKE 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Boston CollegeDuke

Offense

342▼ 213 Total yards ▼ 382406

199▼ 135 Passing yards ▼ 233235

143▼ 78 Rushing yards ▼ 149171

19▼ 14 First downs ▼ 2122

Scoring

3▼ 0 Touchdowns ▲ 63

1▼ 0 Passing touchdowns ▼ 12

2▼ 0 Rushing touchdowns ▲ 51

0= 0 Field goals made = 22

Ball security

1▲ 2 Turnovers = 11

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown = 11

1▲ 2 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

62▲ 129 Penalty yards ▲ 9064

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 269.5 Proj. 342 72% Lost · 213

Passing yards Over 141.5 Proj. 199 72% Lost · 135

Rushing yards Over 91.5 Proj. 143 72% Lost · 78

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 20 74% Lost · 14

Total yards Over 333.5 Proj. 406 72% Won · 382

Passing yards Over 178.5 Proj. 235 72% Won · 233

Rushing yards Over 118.5 Proj. 171 72% Won · 149

First downs Over 18.5 Proj. 22 71% Won · 21

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Boston College

QB Mason McKenzie17/28 · 199 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT 199pass yds

RB Bo MacCormack III9 carries · 38 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 1 rec 38rush yds

WR/TE Johnathan Montague Jr.3 rec · 40 yds · 0.2 TD 40rec yds

WR/TE Javarius Green4 rec · 37 yds · 0.1 TD 37rec yds

Duke

QB Walker Eget18/28 · 202 pass yds · 1.3 TD · 0.8 INT 202pass yds

RB Nate Sheppard21 carries · 103 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 5 rec 103rush yds

WR/TE Jeremiah Hasley4 rec · 40 yds · 0.0 TD 40rec yds

WR/TE Jared Richardson3 rec · 38 yds · 0.4 TD 38rec yds

Road form. Boston College is 1-2 on the road this season, losing by 2.0 points a game.

Home form. Duke is 3-1 at home, scoring 33.5 points a game there.

Total move. The total opened at 47.5 and is now 48.5.

Rest. Boston College comes in on 7 days’ rest, Duke on 8.

Tale of the tape

Boston CollegeDuke

4-3Record5-2

1-2 roadRoad / home3-1 home

W2StreakW1

7 daysRest8 days

24.4Points per game29.9

23.6Points allowed16.0

+6 Point differentialseason to date +97

195Passing yards / game236

181Rushing yards / game190

38%3rd-down conversion44%

13Takeaways7

0Sacks0

10Turnovers4

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Boston College’s road games with Duke’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.