Moneyline
BUF ML−250
Won 87%
The Bills win the game.
Confidence87%
Model69.4%
SportsbooksOdds69.1%
Edge+0.3
Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 18, 7:54 PM ET
Bills vs Raiders picks
3 picks · Bills by 3 · 43 points · 2 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
BUF +1.5odds up −278
Won 78%
The Bills win, or lose by one point or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model71.7%
SportsbooksOdds71.5%
Edge+0.2
Total
Under 60.5odds up −250
Lost 77%
The two teams score 60 or fewer points between them.
Confidence77%
Model76.1%
SportsbooksOdds70.4%
Edge+5.7
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Bills713032023
Raiders010371020
Most likely final scoresBUF 23–20 LV 0.8%BUF 27–24 LV 0.7%BUF 30–27 LV 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
BillsRaiders
Offense
379▼ 345
Total yards
▲ 378321
227▲ 242
Passing yards
▲ 313230
152▼ 103
Rushing yards
▼ 6591
22▲ 23
First downs
▲ 2520
Scoring
3= 3
Touchdowns
▲ 32
2= 2
Passing touchdowns
▲ 21
1= 1
Rushing touchdowns
= 11
1▲ 4
Field goals made
▲ 32
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
= 11
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
2= 2
Sacks allowed
▼ 02
55▲ 77
Penalty yards
▲ 6251
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 332.5
Proj. 379
72%
Won · 345
Passing yards
Over 185.5
Proj. 227
72%
Won · 242
Rushing yards
Over 123.5
Proj. 152
72%
Lost · 103
First downs
Over 19.5
Proj. 22
70%
Won · 23
Total yards
Over 274.5
Proj. 321
72%
Won · 378
Passing yards
Over 188.5
Proj. 229
72%
Won · 313
Rushing yards
Over 62.5
Proj. 91
72%
Won · 65
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 20
71%
Won · 25
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Bills
QB
Josh Allen20/30 · 227 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
227pass yds
RB
James Cook19 carries · 103 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec
103rush yds
WR/TE
Khalil Shakir4 rec · 49 yds · 0.0 TD
49rec yds
WR/TE
Ty Johnson4 rec · 47 yds · 0.0 TD
47rec yds
Raiders
QB
Kirk Cousins22/35 · 230 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
230pass yds
RB
Ashton Jeanty16 carries · 65 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 4 rec
65rush yds
WR/TE
Brock Bowers7 rec · 83 yds · 0.5 TD
83rec yds
WR/TE
Michael Mayer4 rec · 31 yds · 0.1 TD
31rec yds
Road form. The Bills are 2-0 on the road this season, winning by 4.0 points a game.
Home form. The Raiders are 1-1 at home, scoring 27.0 points a game there.
Total move. The total opened at 51.5 and is now 53.5.
Rest. The Bills come in on 6 days’ rest, the Raiders on 7.
Tale of the tape
Buffalo BillsLas Vegas Raiders
Buffalo BillsLas Vegas Raiders
4-1Record3-2
2-0 roadRoad / home1-1 home
W1StreakL2
6 daysRest7 days
32.8Points per game26.4
28.2Points allowed25.8
+23
Point differentialseason to date
+3
6.7Yards per play5.2
238Passing yards / game254
158Rushing yards / game82
50%3rd-down conversion39%
71%Red-zone touchdowns56%
5Takeaways10
11Sacks13
9Turnovers7
7.8Yards per play5.0
263Passing yards / game263
160Rushing yards / game101
31%3rd-down conversion37%
63%Red-zone touchdowns50%
2Takeaways2
4Sacks7
2Turnovers4
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Bills’ road games with the Raiders’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Bills
4-1
WWWLW
Wk 5Oct 12@ LAR
Bills37Rams34
Bills moneyline +142Rams moneyline −175
WF/OT
Wk 4Oct 4vs NE
Patriots29Bills26
Patriots moneyline +260Bills moneyline −333
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs LAC
Chargers16Bills24
Chargers moneyline +270Bills moneyline −345
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 17vs DET
Lions31Bills41
Lions moneyline +190Bills moneyline −244
WFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13@ HOU
Bills36Texans31
Bills moneyline −120Texans moneyline −102
WFINAL
Raiders
3-2
WWWLL
Wk 5Oct 11@ NE
Raiders17Patriots45
Raiders moneyline +148Patriots moneyline −185
LFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4vs KC
Chiefs30Raiders27
Chiefs moneyline −227Raiders moneyline +185
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ NO
Raiders35Saints27
Raiders moneyline +150Saints moneyline −200
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20@ LAC
Raiders26Chargers14
Raiders moneyline +245Chargers moneyline −313
WFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13vs MIA
Dolphins13Raiders27
Dolphins moneyline +133Raiders moneyline −169
WFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameAFC East
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
BILLS
1
Wins
Avg. points38.0 – 10.0
Avg. total48.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
0
RAIDERS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2023 · Wk 2Highmark Stadium
Raiders10Bills38
Raiders moneyline +290Bills moneyline −357
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (BUF)−238−238
Moneyline (LV)+195+195
Spread (LV)+4.5+4.5
Total51.5up 53.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Buffalo Bills beat the Las Vegas Raiders 33–30 in NFL Week 6 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, October 18 at 4:25 PM ET, at Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas. The moneyline had the Bills at −238 and the Raiders at +195.
Our model predicted a final score of Bills 23, Raiders 20. Its picks: the Bills to win (−250), won; the Bills +1.5 (−278), won; under 60.5 points (−250), lost. The best pick was the Bills +1.5, at 78% confidence.