Moneyline
CIN MLodds down −357
Won 75%
The Bengals win the game.
Confidence75%
Model62.5%
SportsbooksOdds74.5%
Edge−12.0
Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 11, 4:19 PM ET
Bengals vs Dolphins picks
3 picks · Bengals by 3 · 43 points · 3 of 3 wonSpread
MIA +13.5odds up −250
Won 85%
The Dolphins win, or lose by 13 points or fewer.
Confidence85%
Model74.6%
SportsbooksOdds69.2%
Edge+5.4
TotalBest pick
Over 37odds down −313
Won 85%
The two teams score 38 or more points between them (exactly 37 is a push).
Confidence85%
Model72.9%
SportsbooksOdds70.5%
Edge+2.4
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Bengals671001323
Dolphins3377620
Most likely final scoresCIN 23–20 MIA 0.7%CIN 27–24 MIA 0.6%CIN 24–17 MIA 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
BengalsDolphins
Offense
357▼ 307
Total yards
▲ 331322
255▼ 190
Passing yards
▼ 114203
102▲ 117
Rushing yards
▲ 217119
21▲ 22
First downs
▲ 2318
Scoring
3▲ 4
Touchdowns
▲ 32
2▲ 4
Passing touchdowns
= 11
1▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
▲ 21
1= 1
Field goals made
▼ 12
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
▲ 31
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▲ 21
0▲ 1
Fumbles lost
▲ 10
2▼ 0
Sacks allowed
= 33
52▼ 39
Penalty yards
▼ 3053
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 310.5
Proj. 357
72%
Lost · 307
Passing yards
Over 213.5
Proj. 255
72%
Lost · 190
Rushing yards
Over 73.5
Proj. 102
72%
Won · 117
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 21
71%
Won · 22
Total yards
Over 275.5
Proj. 322
72%
Won · 331
Passing yards
Over 161.5
Proj. 203
72%
Lost · 114
Rushing yards
Over 90.5
Proj. 119
72%
Won · 217
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 18
75%
Won · 23
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Bengals
QB
Joe Burrow26/34 · 255 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
255pass yds
RB
Chase Brown18 carries · 71 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 5 rec
71rush yds
WR/TE
Tee Higgins6 rec · 92 yds · 0.3 TD
92rec yds
WR/TE
Ja'Marr Chase5 rec · 49 yds · 0.9 TD
49rec yds
Dolphins
QB
Malik Willis18/29 · 203 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
203pass yds
RB
Ollie Gordon9 carries · 51 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 3 rec
51rush yds
WR/TE
Malik Washington5 rec · 68 yds · 0.0 TD
68rec yds
WR/TE
Greg Dulcich3 rec · 32 yds · 0.0 TD
32rec yds
Road form. The Bengals are 1-1 on the road this season, winning by 5.5 points a game.
Home form. The Dolphins are 0-1 at home, scoring 10.0 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at MIA +6.5 and is now MIA +7.5, a 1-point move toward the Bengals.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Streak. The Dolphins have lost 4 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Cincinnati BengalsMiami Dolphins
Cincinnati BengalsMiami Dolphins
2-2Record0-4
1-1 roadRoad / home0-1 home
L2StreakL4
7 daysRest7 days
24.3Points per game11.5
21.3Points allowed25.3
+12
Point differentialseason to date
−55
5.7Yards per play5.1
278Passing yards / game164
74Rushing yards / game104
45%3rd-down conversion38%
50%Red-zone touchdowns33%
5Takeaways3
14Sacks4
5Turnovers5
5.4Yards per play4.9
226Passing yards / game210
84Rushing yards / game119
41%3rd-down conversion50%
67%Red-zone touchdowns50%
1Takeaways1
6Sacks0
2Turnovers2
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Bengals’ road games with the Dolphins’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Bengals
2-2
LWWLL
Wk 4Oct 4vs JAX
Jaguars22Bengals17
Jaguars moneyline +116Bengals moneyline −149
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ PIT
Bengals27Steelers30
Bengals moneyline −182Steelers moneyline +150
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20@ HOU
Bengals20Texans6
Bengals moneyline +120Texans moneyline −147
WFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13vs TB
Buccaneers27Bengals33
Buccaneers moneyline +170Bengals moneyline −208
WFINAL
Wk 18Jan 4, 2026vs CLE
Browns20Bengals18
Browns moneyline +335Bengals moneyline −476
LFINAL
Dolphins
0-4
LLLLL
Wk 4Oct 4@ MIN
Dolphins10Vikings15
Dolphins moneyline +400Vikings moneyline −556
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs KC
Chiefs24Dolphins10
Chiefs moneyline −625Dolphins moneyline +440
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20@ SF
Dolphins1349ers35
Dolphins moneyline +56049ers moneyline −909
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13@ LV
Dolphins13Raiders27
Dolphins moneyline +133Raiders moneyline −169
LFINAL
Wk 18Jan 4, 2026@ NE
Dolphins10Patriots38
Dolphins moneyline +650Patriots moneyline −1000
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameAFC North
Head-to-head
Last two meetings · regular season and playoffs
BENGALS
2
Wins
Avg. points36.0 – 18.0
Avg. total54.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 2
0
DOLPHINS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 16Hard Rock Stadium
Bengals45Dolphins21
Bengals moneyline −192Dolphins moneyline +155
2022 · Wk 4Paycor Stadium
Dolphins15Bengals27
Dolphins moneyline +165Bengals moneyline −192
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (CIN)−370−370
Moneyline (MIA)+273down +267
Spread (MIA)+6.5up +7.5
Total42.5up 44.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Cincinnati Bengals beat the Miami Dolphins 31–24 in NFL Week 5 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET, at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens. The moneyline had the Bengals at −370 and the Dolphins at +267.
Our model predicted a final score of Bengals 23, Dolphins 20. Its picks: the Bengals to win (−357), won; the Dolphins +13.5 (−250), won; over 37 points (−313), won. The best pick was over 37 points, at 85% confidence.