Moneyline
GB ML+100
Won 56%
The Packers win the game.
Confidence56%
Model52.9%
SportsbooksOdds47.4%
Edge+5.5
Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 11, 4:19 PM ET
Bears vs Packers picks
3 picks · Packers by 3 · 37 points · 3 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
GB +6.5−263
Won 85%
The Packers win, or lose by six points or fewer.
Confidence85%
Model74.4%
SportsbooksOdds69.4%
Edge+5.0
Total
Under 52odds up −233
Won 85%
The two teams score 51 or fewer points between them (exactly 52 is a push).
Confidence85%
Model68.3%
SportsbooksOdds69.9%
Edge−1.6
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Bears0377317
Packers010371020
Most likely final scoresCHI 17–20 GB 0.9%CHI 20–23 GB 0.8%CHI 24–27 GB 0.7%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
BearsPackers
Offense
363▼ 246
Total yards
▲ 428329
210▼ 165
Passing yards
▲ 358226
153▼ 81
Rushing yards
▼ 70103
22▼ 17
First downs
= 1818
Scoring
2▼ 1
Touchdowns
▲ 42
1▼ 0
Passing touchdowns
▲ 21
1= 1
Rushing touchdowns
▲ 21
1▼ 0
Field goals made
▼ 12
Ball security
1▲ 5
Turnovers
▼ 01
1▲ 3
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
0▲ 2
Fumbles lost
= 00
2▲ 4
Sacks allowed
= 22
50▼ 20
Penalty yards
▼ 2553
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 316.5
Proj. 363
72%
Lost · 246
Passing yards
Over 168.5
Proj. 210
72%
Lost · 165
Rushing yards
Over 124.5
Proj. 153
72%
Lost · 81
First downs
Over 19.5
Proj. 22
69%
Lost · 17
Total yards
Over 283.5
Proj. 330
72%
Won · 428
Passing yards
Over 185.5
Proj. 227
72%
Won · 358
Rushing yards
Over 74.5
Proj. 103
72%
Lost · 70
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 18
72%
Won · 18
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Bears
QB
Tyson Bagent14/20 · 160 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 0.4 INT
160pass yds
RB
D'Andre Swift14 carries · 61 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec
61rush yds
WR/TE
Kalif Raymond5 rec · 50 yds · 0.3 TD
50rec yds
WR/TE
Luther Burden III4 rec · 49 yds · 0.3 TD
49rec yds
Packers
QB
Jordan Love19/32 · 226 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
226pass yds
RB
Kaleb Johnson9 carries · 50 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 1 rec
50rush yds
WR/TE
Christian Watson4 rec · 75 yds · 0.5 TD
75rec yds
WR/TE
Matthew Golden4 rec · 62 yds · 0.3 TD
62rec yds
Road form. The Bears are 1-0 on the road this season, winning by 22.0 points a game.
Home form. The Packers are 0-1 at home, scoring 14.0 points a game there.
Total move. The total opened at 45.5 and is now 46.5.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Division game. Two NFC North rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Tale of the tape
Chicago BearsGreen Bay Packers
Chicago BearsGreen Bay Packers
3-1Record2-2
1-0 roadRoad / home0-1 home
W2StreakW1
7 daysRest7 days
28.0Points per game18.3
16.3Points allowed26.3
+47
Point differentialseason to date
−32
5.8Yards per play5.2
233Passing yards / game249
196Rushing yards / game58
47%3rd-down conversion26%
42%Red-zone touchdowns47%
6Takeaways4
10Sacks10
5Turnovers6
7.9Yards per play5.2
261Passing yards / game311
291Rushing yards / game17
71%3rd-down conversion40%
100%Red-zone touchdowns50%
3Takeaways1
2Sacks0
1Turnovers1
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Bears’ road games with the Packers’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Bears
3-1
LWLWW
Wk 4Oct 4vs NYJ
Jets12Bears23
Jets moneyline +155Bears moneyline −192
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 28vs PHI
Eagles7Bears27
Eagles moneyline −200Bears moneyline +162
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs MIN
Vikings9Bears3
Vikings moneyline +175Bears moneyline −222
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13@ CAR
Bears59Panthers37
Bears moneyline −167Panthers moneyline +135
WFINAL
DivisionalJan 18, 2026vs LAR
Rams20Bears17
Rams moneyline −213Bears moneyline +162
LF/OT
Packers
2-2
LLWLW
Wk 4Oct 4@ TB
Packers17Buccaneers14
Packers moneyline −156Buccaneers moneyline +130
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 24vs ATL
Falcons35Packers14
Falcons moneyline +205Packers moneyline −263
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20@ NYJ
Packers20Jets17
Packers moneyline −182Jets moneyline +147
WF/OT
Wk 1Sep 13@ MIN
Packers22Vikings39
Packers moneyline +111Vikings moneyline −139
LFINAL
Wild CardJan 10, 2026@ CHI
Packers27Bears31
Packers moneyline −128Bears moneyline +105
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this game
Head-to-head
Last five meetings · regular season and playoffs
BEARS
3
Wins
Avg. points23.4 – 22.6
Avg. total46.0 pts
Over closing total3 of 5
2
PACKERS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wild CardSoldier Field
Packers27Bears31
Packers moneyline −128Bears moneyline +105
2025 · Wk 16Soldier Field
Packers16Bears22
Packers moneyline +102Bears moneyline −122
2025 · Wk 14Lambeau Field
Bears21Packers28
Bears moneyline +245Packers moneyline −345
2024 · Wk 18Lambeau Field
Bears24Packers22
Bears moneyline +335Packers moneyline −500
2024 · Wk 11Soldier Field
Packers20Bears19
Packers moneyline −286Bears moneyline +215
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (CHI)−123up −122
Moneyline (GB)+101down +100
Spread (GB)+1.5+1.5
Total45.5up 46.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Green Bay Packers beat the Chicago Bears 31–7 in NFL Week 5 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET, at Lambeau Field, Green Bay. The moneyline had the Bears at −122 and the Packers at +100.
Our model predicted a final score of Bears 17, Packers 20. Its picks: the Packers to win (+100), won; the Packers +6.5 (−263), won; under 52 points (−233), won. The best pick was the Packers +6.5, at 85% confidence.