Moneyline
ATL MLodds down −102
Lost 52%
The Falcons win the game.
Confidence52%
Model51.4%
SportsbooksOdds39.6%
Edge+11.8
Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 18, 4:28 PM ET
Bears vs Falcons picks
3 picks · Falcons by 3 · 37 points · 1 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
ATL +7.5odds down −385
Lost 78%
The Falcons win, or lose by seven points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model64.1%
SportsbooksOdds68.6%
Edge−4.5
Total
Under 56.5odds up −200
Won 76%
The two teams score 56 or fewer points between them.
Confidence76%
Model63.5%
SportsbooksOdds69.4%
Edge−5.9
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Bears0377317
Falcons0100101020
Most likely final scoresCHI 17–20 ATL 0.9%CHI 20–23 ATL 0.8%CHI 24–27 ATL 0.7%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
BearsFalcons
Offense
357▲ 368
Total yards
▼ 257348
232▲ 270
Passing yards
▼ 194219
125▼ 98
Rushing yards
▼ 63129
21▼ 20
First downs
▼ 1318
Scoring
2▲ 4
Touchdowns
▲ 32
1= 1
Passing touchdowns
▲ 31
1▲ 3
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 01
1= 1
Field goals made
▼ 02
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
▲ 31
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1= 1
Fumbles lost
▲ 31
2▲ 4
Sacks allowed
▲ 52
49▲ 133
Penalty yards
▼ 3152
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 310.5
Proj. 357
72%
Won · 368
Passing yards
Over 190.5
Proj. 232
72%
Won · 270
Rushing yards
Over 96.5
Proj. 125
72%
Won · 98
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 21
71%
Won · 20
Total yards
Over 301.5
Proj. 348
72%
Lost · 257
Passing yards
Over 177.5
Proj. 219
72%
Won · 194
Rushing yards
Over 100.5
Proj. 129
72%
Lost · 63
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 18
73%
Lost · 13
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Bears
QB
Tyson Bagent15/22 · 161 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 0.4 INT
161pass yds
RB
D'Andre Swift12 carries · 51 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 3 rec
51rush yds
WR/TE
Rome Odunze4 rec · 58 yds · 0.0 TD
58rec yds
WR/TE
Luther Burden III5 rec · 56 yds · 0.3 TD
56rec yds
Falcons
QB
Michael Penix Jr.17/28 · 217 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.4 INT
217pass yds
RB
Bijan Robinson17 carries · 89 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 4 rec
89rush yds
WR/TE
Drake London6 rec · 110 yds · 0.0 TD
110rec yds
WR/TE
Kyle Pitts2 rec · 25 yds · 0.3 TD
25rec yds
Road form. The Bears are 1-1 on the road this season, losing by 1.0 points a game.
Home form. The Falcons are 0-2 at home, scoring 13.0 points a game there.
Total move. The total opened at 48.5 and is now 51.5.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Tale of the tape
Chicago BearsAtlanta Falcons
Chicago BearsAtlanta Falcons
3-2Record2-3
1-1 roadRoad / home0-2 home
L1StreakL1
7 daysRest7 days
23.8Points per game23.8
19.2Points allowed24.4
+23
Point differentialseason to date
−3
5.4Yards per play5.8
219Passing yards / game195
173Rushing yards / game167
44%3rd-down conversion42%
43%Red-zone touchdowns69%
6Takeaways4
12Sacks11
10Turnovers9
5.8Yards per play5.0
213Passing yards / game193
186Rushing yards / game134
50%3rd-down conversion43%
83%Red-zone touchdowns33%
3Takeaways1
4Sacks6
6Turnovers6
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Bears’ road games with the Falcons’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Bears
3-2
WLWWL
Wk 5Oct 11@ GB
Bears7Packers31
Bears moneyline −122Packers moneyline +100
LFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4vs NYJ
Jets12Bears23
Jets moneyline +155Bears moneyline −192
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 28vs PHI
Eagles7Bears27
Eagles moneyline −200Bears moneyline +162
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs MIN
Vikings9Bears3
Vikings moneyline +175Bears moneyline −222
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13@ CAR
Bears59Panthers37
Bears moneyline −167Panthers moneyline +135
WFINAL
Falcons
2-3
LLWWL
Wk 5Oct 11vs BAL
Ravens30Falcons23
Ravens moneyline +145Falcons moneyline −175
LF/OT
Wk 4Oct 5@ NO
Falcons45Saints24
Falcons moneyline −102Saints moneyline −120
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 24@ GB
Falcons35Packers14
Falcons moneyline +205Packers moneyline −263
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs CAR
Panthers34Falcons3
Panthers moneyline −147Falcons moneyline +118
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13@ PIT
Falcons13Steelers20
Falcons moneyline +235Steelers moneyline −303
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameNFC North
NFC South
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
Last two meetings · regular season and playoffs
BEARS
1
Wins
Avg. points30.5 – 22.0
Avg. total52.5 pts
Over closing total2 of 2
1
FALCONS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2023 · Wk 17Soldier Field
Falcons17Bears37
Falcons moneyline +122Bears moneyline −147
2022 · Wk 11Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Bears24Falcons27
Bears moneyline +118Falcons moneyline −139
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (CHI)−118−118
Moneyline (ATL)−102down −103
Spread (ATL)+1.5+1.5
Total48.5up 51.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Chicago Bears beat the Atlanta Falcons 31–23 in NFL Week 6 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, October 18 at 1:00 PM ET, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta. The moneyline had the Bears at −118 and the Falcons at −103.
Our model predicted a final score of Bears 17, Falcons 20. Its picks: the Falcons to win (−102), lost; the Falcons +7.5 (−385), lost; under 56.5 points (−200), won. The best pick was the Falcons +7.5, at 78% confidence.