Baylor vs UCF Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
BAY	7	13	14	7	41
UCF	0	6	3	0	9

Baylor vs UCF picks

3 picks · Baylor by 7 · 49 points · 3 of 3 won

Moneyline

BAY MLodds down −143 Won 57%

Baylor wins the game.

Confidence57%

Model52.0% SportsbooksOdds48.1% Edge+3.9

Spread

BAY +6.5odds down −294 Won 79%

Baylor wins, or loses by six points or fewer.

Confidence79%

Model68.8% SportsbooksOdds68.0% Edge+0.8

TotalBest pick

Over 40.5odds down −294 Won 79%

The two teams score 41 or more points between them.

Confidence79%

Model71.6% SportsbooksOdds69.3% Edge+2.3

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Baylor014771428

UCF07014721

Most likely final scoresBAY 28–21 UCF 0.6%BAY 27–24 UCF 0.6%BAY 31–28 UCF 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

BaylorUCF

Offense

385▲ 503 Total yards ▼ 283368

258▲ 319 Passing yards ▼ 215230

127▲ 184 Rushing yards ▼ 68138

21▼ 19 First downs ▼ 1421

Scoring

3▲ 5 Touchdowns ▼ 03

2▲ 4 Passing touchdowns ▼ 02

1= 1 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 01

2= 2 Field goals made ▲ 30

Ball security

1▼ 0 Turnovers ▲ 21

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown = 11

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

62▲ 85 Penalty yards ▼ 4154

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 312.5 Proj. 385 72% Won · 503

Passing yards Over 200.5 Proj. 258 72% Won · 319

Rushing yards Over 75.5 Proj. 127 72% Won · 184

First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 21 71% Won · 19

Total yards Over 294.5 Proj. 368 72% Lost · 283

Passing yards Over 172.5 Proj. 230 72% Won · 215

Rushing yards Over 85.5 Proj. 138 72% Lost · 68

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 21 74% Lost · 14

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Baylor

QB DJ Lagway21/37 · 254 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.8 INT 254pass yds

RB Caden Knighten9 carries · 37 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 1 rec 37rush yds

WR/TE Gavin Freeman7 rec · 83 yds · 0.2 TD 83rec yds

WR/TE Louis Brown3 rec · 45 yds · 0.3 TD 45rec yds

UCF

QB Keyone Jenkins21/34 · 228 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.8 INT 228pass yds

RB Duke Watson14 carries · 82 rush yds · 0.2 TD · 2 rec 82rush yds

WR/TE Joshua Derry5 rec · 58 yds · 0.5 TD 58rec yds

WR/TE Tyren Hornes3 rec · 46 yds · 0.2 TD 46rec yds

Road form. Baylor is 1-2 on the road this season, winning by 11.3 points a game.

Home form. UCF is 4-0 at home, scoring 44.3 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at UCF −2.5 and is now UCF +2.5, a 5-point move toward Baylor.

Rest. Both teams come in on 6 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

BaylorUCF

4-3Record4-3

1-2 roadRoad / home4-0 home

L2StreakW1

6 daysRest6 days

29.1Points per game32.7

16.1Points allowed23.0

+91 Point differentialseason to date +68

279Passing yards / game207

146Rushing yards / game163

39%3rd-down conversion39%

13Takeaways12

0Sacks0

11Turnovers7

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Baylor’s road games with UCF’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.