Baylor vs Kansas Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
BAY	7	0	14	3	24
KU	7	0	3	15	25

Baylor vs Kansas picks

3 picks · Kansas by 3 · 59 points · 3 of 3 won

Moneyline

KU MLodds down −114 Won 52%

Kansas wins the game.

Confidence52%

Model50.2% SportsbooksOdds45.8% Edge+4.4

SpreadBest pick

KU +6.5odds up −238 Won 76%

Kansas wins, or loses by six points or fewer.

Confidence76%

Model67.0% SportsbooksOdds70.4% Edge−3.4

Total

Under 62.5odds down −270 Won 74%

The two teams score 62 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model72.3% SportsbooksOdds68.7% Edge+3.6

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Baylor714072128

Kansas314681731

Most likely final scoresBAY 28–31 KU 0.5%BAY 24–31 KU 0.5%BAY 21–24 KU 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line

BaylorKansas

Offense

403▼ 358 Total yards ▲ 425404

232▲ 236 Passing yards ▼ 212244

171▼ 122 Rushing yards ▲ 213160

22▼ 16 First downs ▲ 2423

Scoring

3= 3 Touchdowns ▼ 34

2▼ 1 Passing touchdowns = 22

1= 1 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 12

2▼ 1 Field goals made ▲ 21

Ball security

1= 1 Turnovers ▲ 21

1= 1 Interceptions thrown ▲ 21

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

59▲ 116 Penalty yards ▼ 3060

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 330.5 Proj. 403 72% Won · 358

Passing yards Over 175.5 Proj. 233 72% Won · 236

Rushing yards Over 118.5 Proj. 171 72% Won · 122

First downs Over 18.5 Proj. 22 70% Lost · 16

Total yards Over 331.5 Proj. 404 72% Won · 425

Passing yards Over 186.5 Proj. 244 72% Won · 212

Rushing yards Over 107.5 Proj. 160 72% Won · 213

First downs Over 18.5 Proj. 23 74% Won · 24

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Baylor

QB DJ Lagway19/34 · 230 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT 230pass yds

RB Dawson Pendergrass14 carries · 62 rush yds · 0.1 TD · 1 rec 62rush yds

WR/TE Gavin Freeman7 rec · 75 yds · 0.3 TD 75rec yds

WR/TE Louis Brown3 rec · 44 yds · 0.4 TD 44rec yds

Kansas

QB Isaiah Marshall17/31 · 217 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.8 INT 217pass yds

RB Dylan Edwards11 carries · 48 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 3 rec 48rush yds

WR/TE Nik McMillan5 rec · 67 yds · 0.9 TD 67rec yds

WR/TE Cam Pickett5 rec · 53 yds · 0.0 TD 53rec yds

Road form. Baylor is 1-1 on the road this season, winning by 17.5 points a game.

Home form. Kansas is 2-2 at home, scoring 36.0 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at KU +3.5 and is now KU −0.5, a 4-point move toward Kansas.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

BaylorKansas

4-2Record2-4

1-1 roadRoad / home2-2 home

L1StreakL2

7 daysRest7 days

30.0Points per game32.0

14.7Points allowed24.0

+92 Point differentialseason to date +48

286Passing yards / game243

150Rushing yards / game207

40%3rd-down conversion39%

11Takeaways6

0Sacks0

10Turnovers9

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Baylor’s road games with Kansas’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.