Baylor vs BYU Prediction & Picks

Baylor vs BYU picks

3 picks · BYU by 7 · 49 points

MoneylineBest pick

BYU MLodds down −313 81%

BYU wins the game.

Confidence81%

Model63.8% SportsbooksOdds73.1% Edge−9.3

Spread

BAY +15.5odds down −270 81%

Baylor wins, or loses by 15 points or fewer.

Confidence81%

Model72.9% SportsbooksOdds68.0% Edge+4.9

Total

Over 42.5−250 74%

The two teams score 43 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model68.3% SportsbooksOdds68.1% Edge+0.2

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Baylor014071421

BYU014771428

Most likely final scoresBAY 21–28 BYU 0.7%BAY 24–31 BYU 0.6%BAY 21–24 BYU 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

BaylorBYU

Offense

349 Total yards 400

227 Passing yards 251

122 Rushing yards 149

19 First downs 21

Scoring

3 Touchdowns 3

2 Passing touchdowns 1

1 Rushing touchdowns 2

0 Field goals made 2

Ball security

1 Turnovers 1

1 Interceptions thrown 1

1 Fumbles lost 1

0 Sacks allowed 0

51 Penalty yards 54

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 275.5 Proj. 349 72%

Passing yards Over 170.5 Proj. 227 72%

Rushing yards Over 69.5 Proj. 122 72%

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 72%

Total yards Over 326.5 Proj. 400 72%

Passing yards Over 193.5 Proj. 251 72%

Rushing yards Over 97.5 Proj. 150 72%

First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 21 71%

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Baylor

QB DJ Lagway20/37 · 225 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT 225pass yds

RB Ryelan Morris7 carries · 34 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec 34rush yds

WR/TE Gavin Freeman7 rec · 79 yds · 0.3 TD 79rec yds

WR/TE Tony Livingston2 rec · 22 yds · 0.6 TD 22rec yds

BYU

QB Bear Bachmeier21/33 · 248 pass yds · 0.9 TD · 0.9 INT 248pass yds

RB Sione I Moa12 carries · 49 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 2 rec 49rush yds

WR/TE Legend Glasker5 rec · 78 yds · 0.4 TD 78rec yds

WR/TE Kyler Kasper4 rec · 64 yds · 0.4 TD 64rec yds

Line move. The spread opened at BYU −6.5 and is now BYU −7.5, a 1-point move toward BYU.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

BaylorBYU

6-3Record7-2

W2StreakL1

7 daysRest7 days

31.9Points per game31.0

17.0Points allowed19.8

7th Big 12Conference5th Big 12

+134 Point differentialseason to date +101

278Passing yards / game228

156Rushing yards / game169

40%3rd-down conversion51%

16Takeaways11

0Sacks0

11Turnovers12

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Baylor’s road games with BYU’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.