Arizona State vs UCF Prediction & Picks

Arizona St vs UCF picks

3 picks · UCF by 7 · 49 points

Moneyline

UCF MLodds down −167 81%

UCF wins the game.

Confidence81%

Model61.6% SportsbooksOdds57.6% Edge+4.0

Spread

UCF +3.5odds down −250 80%

UCF wins, or loses by three points or fewer.

Confidence80%

Model71.1% SportsbooksOdds67.2% Edge+3.9

TotalBest pick

Over 41.5odds down −256 76%

The two teams score 42 or more points between them.

Confidence76%

Model67.4% SportsbooksOdds68.3% Edge−0.9

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Arizona St77071421

UCF770141428

Most likely final scoresASU 21–28 UCF 0.7%ASU 21–24 UCF 0.6%ASU 27–30 UCF 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Arizona StUCF

Offense

353 Total yards 352

228 Passing yards 231

125 Rushing yards 121

18 First downs 19

Scoring

3 Touchdowns 3

2 Passing touchdowns 2

1 Rushing touchdowns 1

0 Field goals made 2

Ball security

1 Turnovers 1

1 Interceptions thrown 1

1 Fumbles lost 1

0 Sacks allowed 0

52 Penalty yards 42

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 280.5 Proj. 353 72%

Passing yards Over 171.5 Proj. 229 72%

Rushing yards Over 72.5 Proj. 125 72%

First downs Over 14.5 Proj. 18 72%

Total yards Over 278.5 Proj. 352 72%

Passing yards Over 173.5 Proj. 231 72%

Rushing yards Over 69.5 Proj. 121 72%

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 72%

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Arizona St

QB Jake Fette14/23 · 158 pass yds · 1.5 TD · 0.0 INT 158pass yds

RB Cardae Mack17 carries · 98 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 2 rec 98rush yds

WR/TE Reed Harris5 rec · 84 yds · 0.8 TD 84rec yds

WR/TE Omarion Miller4 rec · 54 yds · 0.4 TD 54rec yds

UCF

QB Alonza Barnett III14/24 · 190 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.4 INT 190pass yds

RB Landen Chambers7 carries · 20 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 1 rec 20rush yds

WR/TE Joshua Derry6 rec · 79 yds · 0.7 TD 79rec yds

WR/TE Tyren Hornes4 rec · 44 yds · 0.2 TD 44rec yds

Total move. The total opened at 51.5 and is now 49.5.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

Arizona StateUCF

5-4Record5-4

W1StreakW1

7 daysRest7 days

28.4Points per game30.1

27.3Points allowed26.0

11th Big 12Conference8th Big 12

+10 Point differentialseason to date +37

248Passing yards / game213

137Rushing yards / game146

30%3rd-down conversion36%

9Takeaways14

0Sacks0

11Turnovers11

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Arizona St’s road games with UCF’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.