Arizona State vs BYU Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
ASU	0	3	14	3	20
BYU	7	10	0	10	27

Arizona St vs BYU picks

3 picks · BYU by 7 · 49 points · 3 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

BYU MLodds down −1111 Won 92%

BYU wins the game.

Confidence92%

Model80.5% SportsbooksOdds87.6% Edge−7.1

Spread

ASU +22.5odds up −227 Won 79%

Arizona St wins, or loses by 22 points or fewer.

Confidence79%

Model68.7% SportsbooksOdds68.0% Edge+0.7

Total

Over 42.5odds up −217 Won 74%

The two teams score 43 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model67.8% SportsbooksOdds68.1% Edge−0.3

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Arizona St014071421

BYU77771428

Most likely final scoresASU 21–28 BYU 0.6%ASU 28–31 BYU 0.5%ASU 24–31 BYU 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Arizona StBYU

Offense

331▼ 279 Total yards ▼ 283394

219▼ 166 Passing yards ▲ 236232

112▲ 113 Rushing yards ▼ 47162

18▲ 20 First downs ▼ 1820

Scoring

3▼ 2 Touchdowns ▼ 34

2= 2 Passing touchdowns ▼ 12

1▼ 0 Rushing touchdowns = 22

Ball security

1= 1 Turnovers ▲ 21

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown = 11

1= 1 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

45▲ 61 Penalty yards ▼ 1946

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 258.5 Proj. 331 72% Won · 279

Passing yards Over 161.5 Proj. 219 72% Won · 166

Rushing yards Over 60.5 Proj. 112 72% Won · 113

First downs Over 14.5 Proj. 18 72% Won · 20

Total yards Over 321.5 Proj. 394 72% Lost · 283

Passing yards Over 174.5 Proj. 232 72% Won · 236

Rushing yards Over 110.5 Proj. 163 72% Lost · 47

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 72% Won · 18

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Arizona St

QB Mikey Keene17/26 · 154 pass yds · 1.3 TD · 0.0 INT 154pass yds

RB Cardae Mack10 carries · 67 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 1 rec 67rush yds

WR/TE Reed Harris7 rec · 101 yds · 1.3 TD 101rec yds

WR/TE Omarion Miller5 rec · 44 yds · 0.2 TD 44rec yds

BYU

QB Bear Bachmeier20/33 · 229 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.5 INT 229pass yds

RB Preston Rex6 carries · 29 rush yds · 0.2 TD · 2 rec 29rush yds

WR/TE Legend Glasker5 rec · 75 yds · 0.4 TD 75rec yds

WR/TE Kyler Kasper4 rec · 58 yds · 0.9 TD 58rec yds

Road form. Arizona St is 1-2 on the road this season, losing by 16.3 points a game.

Home form. BYU is 4-0 at home, scoring 35.8 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at BYU −16.5 and is now BYU −17.5, a 1-point move toward BYU.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

Arizona StateBYU

4-3Record6-1

1-2 roadRoad / home4-0 home

W1StreakL1

7 daysRest7 days

30.9Points per game33.1

29.9Points allowed18.6

+7 Point differentialseason to date +102

267Passing yards / game221

144Rushing yards / game194

30%3rd-down conversion55%

6Takeaways8

0Sacks0

10Turnovers6

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Arizona St’s road games with BYU’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.